Building Climate Resilience in Somalia: Navigating Conflict and Environmental Crisis

Somalia is facing a crisis where climate change and conflict are deeply intertwined, each making the other worse. Droughts and floods are no longer rare disasters but recurring catastrophes that wipe out crops, deplete water sources and force people from their homes. These environmental shocks have not only devastated livelihoods but have also shaped the country's long-running conflict with Al-Shabaab. The militant group has used water as a weapon, blocking aid to communities under its control and even destroying vital infrastructure. But this strategy has backfired, fueling local resentment and driving military offensives against the militants.

While Somalia has made some progress in reclaiming territory from Al-Shabaab, the path to long-term stability remains uncertain. The government struggles to prove it can provide essential services in recaptured areas, and corruption continues to doubt its ability to manage international climate funds. Yet, climate adaptation cannot wait. Without more substantial investments in water infrastructure, sustainable agriculture, and flood defences, Somalia will remain locked in a cycle where every drought and flood deepens instability.

This article explores how climate change is reshaping Somalia's security landscape, how natural resources fuel conflict, and what needs to be done to build a future where people and ecosystems can thrive.

Somalia's climate and conflict have long been entangled in a cycle that fuels suffering, displacement, and instability. The arid and semi-arid landscape, where pastoralism and agriculture are the backbone of livelihoods, has made control over land and water a strategic necessity. But as droughts intensify and rainfall patterns grow erratic, scarcity has become a weapon of war wielded by state and non-state actors. Nowhere is this clearer than in Al-Shabaab's rule over vast rural territories, where the militant group manipulates access to resources to entrench its influence, extract revenue, and punish dissent. For years, Al-Shabaab has imposed taxes on farmers before they can plant crops, charged herders for each camel that drinks from its wells, and blocked humanitarian aid from reaching starving communities. In times of extreme drought, when water becomes more precious than gold, the group has turned boreholes and reservoirs into tools of coercion, ensuring that only those who submit to its authority can survive.

Al-Shabaab's financial exploitation of natural resources extends beyond agriculture and water. The charcoal trade once filled its war chest, as forests were felled to meet demand in Gulf states. Even after UN sanctions cut off exports, the group found ways to profit—either by taxing local sales or, at times, by sabotaging the trade to undermine rival authorities. Its stance toward deforestation has been inconsistent: at times, banning tree-cutting and single-use plastics in its territories, and at other times, exploiting the very environment it claims to protect. In certain regions, it has even planted forests, not out of ecological concern but to provide militants with cover from drone strikes. This calculated use of natural resources extends to Al-Shabaab's response to humanitarian crises. When drought gripped Somalia in 2011, the group's blockade of aid deliveries led to a devastating famine that killed a quarter of a million people, primarily children. Fearing backlash, it later relaxed some restrictions, allowing limited aid during the 2017 drought—but only under its terms, imposing fees on relief agencies and ensuring that assistance reinforced its control. More recently, during the 2020-2023 drought, Al-Shabaab's actions deepened the crisis, as it maintained blockades, destroyed food supplies, and punished those seeking help from government-controlled areas. Meanwhile, the Somali government, struggling to assert control over newly recaptured regions, has at times also weaponized access to water, restricting supplies to pressure Al-Shabaab strongholds. This climate-conflict nexus has eroded trust in governance, making Somalia's path to stability ever more fragile.

Somalia's broader climate crisis is exacerbated by rising temperatures, worsening droughts, and flash floods that displace entire communities. Yet, Al-Shabaab's response to these crises is paradoxical. While the group has at times acknowledged the devastating effects of climate change—framing it as a Western-induced catastrophe—it simultaneously exploits environmental disasters to tighten its grip. During prolonged droughts, Al-Shabaab portrays itself as an aid provider, using its control over wells and food supplies to demand loyalty and compliance. At the same time, it obstructs external humanitarian efforts, ensuring that desperation forces communities to remain under its rule.

In some cases, the group has justified its environmental restrictions—such as bans on deforestation and plastic waste—as measures of responsible governance. However, these actions are rarely motivated by ecological concerns; instead, they are tactical moves to reinforce legitimacy while maintaining control over the economic benefits of resource extraction. The contradiction lies in how Al-Shabaab both denounces environmental degradation and profits from it, leveraging climate crises as instruments of war and governance.

The ongoing military offensive against Al-Shabaab has disrupted some of these entrenched resource control systems, but new challenges have emerged. As the insurgents lose territory, they adapt their strategies, sabotaging water infrastructure and leveraging their network of informants to maintain influence. Despite reclaiming key regions, the government has struggled to establish governance structures that provide sustainable access to resources. Clan-based militias, instrumental in the fight against Al-Shabaab, now pose a new dilemma as they compete for power and access to land, reviving old grievances. Moreover, the international community's role in Somalia's climate-conflict landscape remains complex. The African Union's planned withdrawal of its peacekeeping mission raises questions about whether Somali forces can maintain security, especially in rural areas where Al-Shabaab's influence remains deeply rooted. Foreign aid, often crucial in mitigating climate disasters, risks being politicized or falling short of reaching those most in need due to ongoing instability.

The Somali government, along with international partners, is implementing a multi-pronged strategy to counter Al-Shabaab's grip on natural resources, break its financing mechanisms, and weaken its territorial hold. These efforts unfold across military, economic, and governance domains, each presenting challenges that underscore the conflict's complexity.

• Military and Security Measures
  

  Military offensives remain central to Somalia's strategy. The government, with support from the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) and U.S. airstrikes, has been targeting Al-Shabaab-controlled territories, particularly in central regions. However, the momentum has slowed while initial successes pushed the militants out of key strongholds. Plans for the next offensive phase focused on Al-Shabaab's entrenched positions in southern Somalia, have been delayed due to logistical constraints, lack of local coordination, and the need for a sustainable security presence in recaptured areas.

  A forthcoming African Union Support Mission in Somalia, which will replace ATMIS in 2025, aims to bolster security in urban centres and critical infrastructure while Somali forces continue their counter-insurgency campaign. Yet sustaining these gains requires a more integrated strategy beyond military action.

• Economic Disruption and Resource Control
  

  Somalia is ramping up efforts to dismantle Al-Shabaab's financial networks. Given the insurgency's reliance on illegal taxation of trade, agriculture, and water access, the government is enforcing stricter controls at border crossings and trade hubs. International financial monitoring has also tightened, targeting illicit money flows that fund Al-Shabaab's operations.

  One of the most significant economic measures is cracking down on the charcoal trade, which once served as a significant revenue stream for Al-Shabaab. The UN-imposed ban on Somali charcoal exports remains in place, and surveillance efforts have intensified to prevent smuggling through regional ports. However, enforcement remains inconsistent, and Al-Shabaab continues to adapt, shifting its revenue generation methods to local taxation and extortion.

• Climate Resilience and Governance Initiatives
  

  Beyond direct conflict measures, the Somali government is working to address the socio-economic conditions that allow Al-Shabaab to exploit vulnerable communities. Climate resilience projects, including water management infrastructure and reforestation programs, aim to reduce the insurgency's leverage over natural resources. In partnership with international organizations, the government is expanding access to water and agricultural support to diminish the insurgents' ability to use resource scarcity as a tool for control.

  In parallel, efforts are underway to improve governance in liberated areas. The Somali government is attempting to establish stronger local administrations capable of delivering services, thereby preventing a power vacuum that Al-Shabaab could exploit. Yet, trust remains fragile, and the government's ability to provide sustained security and economic opportunities is still limited.

While military pressure has weakened Al-Shabaab's hold in certain areas, the group remains deeply embedded in Somalia's socio-economic fabric. Its ability to generate revenue through taxation, exploit natural resources, and leverage local grievances underscores the need for a more comprehensive approach. International actors continue to push for greater coordination between military operations, economic disruption strategies, and climate resilience efforts to undercut the insurgency's long-term viability.

For Somalia, the path forward hinges on a delicate balance—sustaining military pressure while ensuring that governance and economic development take root in recaptured areas. Without this balance, Al-Shabaab's adaptability could allow it to persist, evolving its tactics and revenue sources to withstand ongoing counter-insurgency efforts.

As climate change intensifies across the Horn of Africa, building resilience becomes not just an environmental imperative but a security one. Somalia's future stability depends on breaking the cycle where environmental degradation fuels conflict and where conflict undermines climate adaptation. This requires sustained international support, improved governance, and innovative approaches to resource management that can withstand both climate shocks and security challenges.