Climate Change and the Threat to Egypt's Life Line

Egypt's lifeblood—the Nile—is running low. For centuries, the country's lifeline has been shrinking—its flow has dropped from 3,000 to 2,830 cubic meters per second in just a few decades. With barely any rainfall, rising sea levels making freshwater more saline, and soaring temperatures pushing the limits of an already arid land, the situation is becoming more urgent. About 95 per cent of Egypt's population lives on just 4 per cent of its land, making water scarcity and environmental degradation directly threatening daily life. If these challenges go unchecked, food security, economic stability, and livelihoods will be on the line. The country's future depends on bold climate action—adapting to a changing environment while building long-term resilience.

Climate Change Profile of Egypt

Egypt's climate profile is defined by its geographical and environmental realities. The country is predominantly desert, with over 95% of its land uninhabitable and reliant on the Nile River for freshwater. This dependence makes Egypt particularly susceptible to climate change impacts, which manifest in several ways:

1. Rising Temperatures
Egypt is getting hotter, and the trend isn't slowing down. While average annual temperatures increased gradually by about 0.1°C per decade between 1901 and 2013, the past thirty years have seen a much sharper rise—0.53°C per decade. This rapid warming is making heat waves more frequent and intense, pushing surface temperatures higher across the country. In the Nile River Basin, temperatures have risen by an average of 0.16°C to 0.4°C, with some areas experiencing even more extreme conditions. In El-Minya Governorate in Upper Egypt, for instance, summer temperatures have reached a scorching 40°C to 44°C in recent years, creating severe challenges for both people and the environment.

For a country where millions rely on outdoor work—especially in agriculture and construction—this means a growing risk of heat-related illnesses such as heatstroke and dehydration. Extreme heat can make working conditions unbearable, reduce productivity, and even lead to fatalities if proper precautions aren't taken.

The agricultural sector, which employs around a quarter of Egypt's workforce, is among the hardest hit. Rising temperatures speed up evaporation, drying out soil and increasing the demand for water—something Egypt is already struggling with due to its arid climate and the declining flow of the Nile. This puts food production at serious risk. Crops like wheat and maize, which are staples in the Egyptian diet, are particularly vulnerable. Yields may fall over the coming decades, a worrying prospect for a country that already relies on food imports to feed its growing population.

2. Water Scarcity
Egypt is running out of water, and the crisis is no longer a distant threat—it is happening now. In 2019, the prediction was that a person in Egypt would receive less than 500 cubic meters of water by 2025. However, by 2023 the country's per capita water availability had reportedly dropped below 500 cubic meters per year, officially placing it in the water poverty stage, as declared by the Egyptian government. This is far below the 1,000 cubic meters per person threshold that hydrologists use to define water scarcity.

Egypt's water crisis revolves around the Nile River, which supplies over 90% of the country's freshwater. But climate change is disrupting this critical resource. Reduced rainfall in upstream countries means less water flowing into the Nile, while soaring temperatures increase evaporation rates, further depleting its levels. At the same time, rising demand, inefficient irrigation, and pollution are straining Egypt's already limited water supply, making the situation even more urgent.

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) adds another layer of complexity. Ethiopia views the dam as essential for its energy needs and economic growth, but Egypt worries that it could further reduce the Nile's flow, worsening an already dire situation. Negotiations between Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia have yet to produce a lasting agreement, leaving uncertainty over how the dam will impact water availability in the years ahead. With no clear resolution in sight, Egypt must find ways to strengthen its water security while navigating the geopolitical tensions surrounding the Nile.

3. Sea-Level Rise
Egypt's northern coast is facing a growing threat from rising sea levels, which endanger both its people and economy. Since 2012, Egypt's coastline has seen an average sea-level rise of 3.2 mm per year, gradually eroding the northern shore of the delta. With much of the country's population and critical industries concentrated along the Mediterranean, even small increases in sea level can have serious consequences.

Alexandria, Egypt's second-largest city and home to over 5 million people is particularly at risk. Large parts of the city sit less than one meter above sea level, leaving it highly vulnerable to flooding. A severe rise in water levels could submerge entire neighbourhoods, damage infrastructure, and force thousands of residents to relocate.

Beyond urban centres, Egypt's farmland is also under threat. The Nile Delta, the heart of the country's agricultural production, is already experiencing saltwater intrusion, which contaminates soil and freshwater supplies. According to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), 15% of Egypt's most fertile land has already been affected, making it harder for farmers to grow crops. This problem will only intensify as sea levels continue to rise.

Climate Governance: Egypt's Current Response

1. National Climate Change Strategy 2050
Egypt's National Climate Change Strategy 2050 lays out a long-term vision for tackling climate change through both mitigation and adaptation. The strategy, which was launched in 2022, focuses on key sectors like energy, water, agriculture, and infrastructure, aiming to strengthen climate resilience while reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

• Increasing renewable energy's share in the electricity mix to 42% by 2035.
• Improving water resource management to combat growing scarcity and inefficiency.
• Expanding sustainable agricultural practices to enhance food security.
• Strengthening infrastructure resilience to withstand rising temperatures, extreme weather, and sea-level rise.

2. Renewable Energy Expansion
Egypt has been ramping up its investment in renewable energy, with significant projects in solar and wind power. One of the country's most notable achievements is the Benban Solar Park in Aswan, one of the largest solar power installations in the world. With a capacity of 1.8 gigawatts, it supplies electricity to over 1 million homes, reinforcing Egypt's commitment to clean energy.

Egypt is also leveraging wind power, particularly in the Gulf of Suez, where steady winds support the development of large wind farms. The country aims to generate 42% of its electricity from renewables by 2035, aligning with global climate commitments.

However, despite these advancements, Egypt remains heavily dependent on fossil fuels, particularly natural gas, which continues to dominate its energy sector. The country also still has plans for oil and gas production, raising concerns about its true commitment to transitioning away from fossil fuels. The real challenge lies in accelerating the shift to renewables while ensuring economic stability.

3. COP27 and Climate Leadership
Hosting COP27 in Sharm El-Sheikh placed Egypt at the centre of global climate negotiations, giving it a key role in shaping discussions around climate finance, adaptation, and loss and damage. One of the summit's biggest outcomes was the agreement to establish a loss and damage fund, a historic step toward compensating vulnerable nations for the devastating impacts of climate change.

Egypt's growing role in global climate diplomacy is significant, but to solidify its leadership, it must match its international advocacy with bold domestic action, ensuring it follows through on both national and global climate commitments.

4. Adaptation and Climate Resilience
As climate impacts intensify, Egypt has implemented adaptation measures to protect communities and vital resources. Key initiatives include:

• Expanding desalination projects to increase freshwater availability in coastal regions.
• Developing early warning systems to better prepare for extreme weather events.
• Restoring mangrove forests to help combat coastal erosion and storm surges.

However, these efforts come with challenges. Desalination plants, for instance, are costly and energy-intensive, making them inaccessible for widespread use. Early warning systems are helpful, but they must be backed by strong disaster response mechanisms, which many local governments lack the resources to implement effectively.

For adaptation efforts to succeed, Egypt must scale up investments, improve climate governance, and integrate resilience planning across all sectors. Without sustained action, the impacts of climate change will continue to outpace adaptation measures, leaving communities at even greater risk.

Conclusion

The Nile cuts across a dozen nations, making it an increasingly strained resource amid competing demands. Egypt, Sudan, Ethiopia, Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, South Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Eritrea all depend on its waters for survival. As climate change continues to alter the river's flow and increase water stress, the need for regional collaboration becomes ever more urgent. Only by working together can these nations develop equitable, sustainable water management strategies that balance individual needs with the collective good, ensuring that the Nile nourishes millions for generations to come.