Climate Change is A Threat to Peace And Security. Here’s How We Can Prevent Further Conflict

The destabilising impacts of climate change are not confined to rising sea levels or increasingly erratic weather patterns. Today, the climate crisis is emerging as one of the most significant threats to global peace and security. Climate-induced resource shortages, displacement due to extreme weather, and heightened competition for dwindling natural resources are amplifying tensions within and between nations, setting the stage for potential conflicts. Vulnerable communities are often the hardest hit, particularly in regions already grappling with socio-political instability.

A heart-rending illustration of this connection is the Syrian civil war which was triggered by a severe drought from 2006 to 2011. This catastrophic natural phenomenon was intensified by climate change. This drought devastated agricultural production, leading to food insecurity that pushed millions of rural inhabitants into urban centres. The sudden influx of strained resources and infrastructure, coupled with the underlying political crisis ignited tensions that spiralled into a serious civil war. The complex links between climate and its negative impact on security show why we urgently need solutions that tackle both resilience to climate change and ways to prevent conflict. The concept of climate security captures this approach, emphasising the need to recognise and mitigate the climate crisis’s impacts on human security, governance, and stability.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emphasises that without immediate and concerted action, the intersection of climate change and security risks will continue to intensify, potentially leading to further conflicts worldwide. This article examines the intricate relationship between climate change and security challenges, proposing pragmatic strategies to avert future disputes while fostering resilience in vulnerable regions.

Climate change acts as a "threat multiplier," intensifying existing vulnerabilities and exacerbating conditions that lead to conflict and instability. The rising temperatures, extreme weather events, and shifting ecosystems triggered by climate change intersect with social, economic, and political stressors, amplifying the potential for unrest and violence. As resources become scarcer, especially in regions already struggling with scarcity, competition for these limited essentials fuels tension and, in some cases, armed conflict. In the Sahel, for example, prolonged droughts have diminished water and arable land availability, leading to conflicts between farmers and herders. These clashes over resources destabilise entire communities, trapping them in cycles of poverty and violence that ripple outward to neighbouring regions.

Another example is the Lake Chad Basin. Prolonged droughts and water scarcity have severely impacted local agriculture and fishing, which are essential for livelihoods in the region. As Lake Chad has shrunk by over 90% since the 1960s, local communities—primarily farmers, fishermen, and herders—face increased competition over remaining water and arable land, which has fueled conflicts and destabilised the area. This resource competition has also provided opportunities for extremist groups, such as Boko Haram, to exploit local grievances and recruit members, worsening regional instability and spilling over into neighbouring countries.

The forced displacement driven by climate change adds further strain to peace and security. Sea-level rise, desertification, and extreme weather events are displacing millions, straining urban centres and putting pressure on neighbouring countries and cities. For instance, Bangladesh's coastal communities, heavily impacted by rising sea levels and extreme weather, have increasingly been forced to migrate to urban centres like Dhaka. This rapid urbanisation, driven by climate-induced migration, has led to the formation of informal settlements and slums, as cities struggle to absorb the growing population. With insufficient housing and resources, many climate migrants end up in overcrowded, informal settlements lacking basic infrastructure and services, including sanitation, healthcare, and education. These conditions not only create health and security risks but also foster social tensions as residents compete over limited jobs and essential services. Such pressures increase the likelihood of friction and violence, especially in cities already facing economic constraints. Also, prolonged drought in Somalia has forced migration to urban areas, leading to overcrowding and infrastructure stress that fuel social friction over resources.

Economically, climate change destabilises communities by undermining the industries they rely on, particularly in developing nations dependent on agriculture and fisheries. In fragile states, where governance structures are already weak, these economic shocks can accelerate a breakdown in social order, giving rise to violent groups that exploit these conditions. In Afghanistan, for instance, prolonged droughts have left rural populations impoverished, making them more susceptible to recruitment by extremist groups like the Taliban, who offer support that the government cannot.

To counter the security threats posed by climate change, governments, international organisations, and financial institutions must adopt a proactive, well-funded approach to build resilience, foster cooperation, and address socioeconomic disparities that fuel conflict.

• Climate Finance in Peace and Security
  

  Targeted investments in resilience and adaptation infrastructure are essential to mitigate the security threats posed by climate change. Climate finance, a critical element of this process, enables at-risk communities to withstand climate extremes, secure essential resources, and reduce their vulnerability to climate-triggered crises. Yet, despite its importance, climate finance for resilience remains insufficient, leaving many high-risk regions, particularly in Africa and South Asia, unable to fully protect themselves against climate impacts. Addressing this funding gap is critical to safeguarding peace in climate-vulnerable areas.

  
  

  Well-channeled climate finance supports projects like climate-resilient agriculture, water management systems, and sustainable energy solutions that are foundational to stability. In areas like the Sahel, for instance, investing in drought-resistant crops, rainwater harvesting, and efficient irrigation systems not only provides essential resources but also minimises competition over water and food. This proactive investment in community-level resilience directly curbs the likelihood of resource-driven conflict and forced migration, two critical factors that fuel instability.

  
  

  Beyond local resilience, strategic climate finance should prioritise infrastructure projects that can bolster regional peace, including early-warning systems, flood defences, and transboundary resource-sharing frameworks. Such investments, supported by initiatives like the Green Climate Fund, mitigate the risk of sudden displacements and relieve strain on communities hosting displaced populations, reducing the social tensions that often lead to conflict. These initiatives highlight how robust climate finance—rooted in adaptation and resilience measures—can serve as a stabilising force, transforming vulnerable regions into resilient, secure communities.

• Strengthening Governance and International Cooperation
  

  Beyond financing, national governments and international coalitions must embed climate security considerations into governance and policy frameworks. Comprehensive national adaptation plans (NAPs), informed by climate risk assessments, are essential to managing resource scarcity, migration pressures, and social vulnerabilities. These plans should be supported by adequate financial resources to ensure timely implementation, especially in high-risk regions like sub-Saharan Africa.

  
  

  Internationally, collective funding mechanisms should prioritize projects with clear climate security outcomes, targeting both immediate adaptation needs and long-term resilience-building. Collaborative initiatives, such as transboundary water-sharing agreements and sustainable agricultural programs, can mitigate competition over scarce resources, fostering regional cooperation and reducing tensions.

• Improving Food Security
  

  Food security is another pivotal element in addressing climate-induced security threats. Climate change directly affects agricultural productivity, water availability, and soil health, making it increasingly challenging for communities in arid and semi-arid regions to maintain food security. Food shortages drive up prices, strain household incomes, and heighten tensions, especially in areas where populations rely on subsistence agriculture. To reduce the likelihood of conflict driven by food scarcity, investment in climate-smart agriculture is essential.

  
  

  Climate-smart agriculture practices, including drought-resistant crops, efficient irrigation systems, and soil restoration techniques, can enable communities to adapt to changing conditions and maintain steady food supplies. In the Lake Chad Basin, where water levels have dramatically receded due to prolonged droughts and overuse, targeted investments in sustainable agriculture and water management help communities sustain their livelihoods while reducing resource-based disputes. These agricultural innovations make food systems more resilient to climate shocks, minimizing disruptions to food supply chains and decreasing the triggers for migration or local conflict.

  
  

  Improving food security also involves strengthening food distribution networks to ensure that resources reach vulnerable populations quickly, especially during climate-induced crises. International funding for food banks, grain storage facilities, and transportation infrastructure is crucial in this regard. Programs that enhance food security not only reduce the drivers of local tension but also promote social stability by ensuring that families can meet their basic needs.

  
  

  Addressing the climate crisis with comprehensive policies that prioritise resilience and security is essential to preventing conflict and fostering lasting stability and peace in vulnerable communities across the world.