Nigeria’s Climate Change Journey: Progress, Challenges, and the Path Forward

Nigeria’s participation in COP 29 in Azerbaijan underscores its visibility in the climate discourse, with 634 delegates representing the country, the highest in Africa. The Conference of the Parties (COP) serves as the decision-making body of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), bringing nations together to assess progress and chart pathways for climate action and this year will make it the 29th time nations are gathering to have such a meeting.

Despite this significant presence, Nigeria struggles to meet its climate targets, mirroring a troubling trend observed in several countries. The 2022 Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative data reveals that Nigeria is vulnerable to climate change impacts and unprepared for resilience and adaptation, ranking 152 out of the 187 countries assessed in the NG-GAIN index. This disparity underscores the urgent need for stronger commitments and actionable strategies to safeguard the nation against escalating climate risks.

As the world accelerates its pursuit of sustainable development goals, Nigeria's efforts, challenges, and opportunities to mitigate and adapt to climate change deserve critical examination. This will be done via the assessment of the effectiveness of the existing climate policy framework, the current renewable energy transition and the household energy consumption pattern, the nation's carbon emission trends, and the mechanisms for financing climate action.

Nigeria’s climate policy framework represents a multi-faceted approach to addressing its environmental challenges and meeting international obligations. Over the years, the country has developed a series of policies and legislative actions aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions, enhancing resilience, and fostering sustainable development. Together, these initiatives reflect an evolving commitment to tackling climate change across key sectors.

The journey begins with the National Policy on Climate Change, adopted in 2013, which serves as the cornerstone of Nigeria’s climate strategy. This policy lays out a comprehensive framework to reduce emissions, focusing on critical sectors such as agriculture, energy, and transportation. Actionable strategies include promoting renewable energy technologies, enhancing energy efficiency in industrial and domestic settings, and building climate-resilient infrastructure. Over the years, the policy has undergone revisions to address emerging climate challenges, ensuring its relevance in guiding sector-specific action plans.

Complementing this overarching framework are Nigeria’s commitments under the Paris Agreement, encapsulated in its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). Updated in 2021, the NDCs outline ambitious targets to reduce emissions by 20% unconditionally and up to 45% with international support by 2030. These commitments focus on transitioning to renewable energy, minimizing gas flaring, adopting climate-smart agricultural practices, and increasing forest cover for carbon sequestration. The updated NDCs ensure a holistic approach to achieving sustainable development alongside emissions reduction by integrating accurate economic projections as the baseline conditions and new sectors.

Building on these commitments that were previously made, the passage of the Climate Change Act (2021) marked a legislative milestone in Nigeria’s climate governance. The Act established the National Council on Climate Change, a central body tasked with coordinating inter-agency efforts, implementing a carbon budgeting system, and preparing a five-year action plan to guide the country’s climate initiatives. This legislation represents a turning point by institutionalizing climate governance and linking it to broader economic goals, underscoring Nigeria’s resolve to integrate climate action into its development trajectory.

Subsequently, Nigeria introduced the National Adaptation Plan Framework (2020) recognizing the need for resilience in the face of climate impacts. This framework focuses on building adaptive capacity across sectors such as health, agriculture, and water resources. Its strategies include promoting drought-resistant crops, improving irrigation systems, and integrating traditional knowledge into community-based adaptation programs. This plan underscores the importance of reducing vulnerabilities in high-risk sectors while aligning adaptation efforts with national priorities.

To support these broader initiatives, sector-specific policies play a critical role. The Renewable Energy Master Plan aims to increase renewables’ share in electricity generation to 23% by 2030, targeting solar, wind, and hydropower development. The Energy Transition Plan (2022) builds on this by charting a pathway to net-zero emissions by 2060, emphasizing renewable energy deployment, electrification of transportation, and modernization of industrial processes.

Although Nigeria’s climate policies reflect commendable ambition, their implementation remains fraught with challenges. Weak institutional capacity, inadequate funding, and a lack of effective enforcement mechanisms have persistently hindered progress. For instance, the National Policy on Climate Change outlines comprehensive strategies, but the absence of enforceable benchmarks and a robust monitoring framework has constrained its impact.

Similarly, Nigeria’s Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) lack detailed timelines and measurable indicators, undermining their credibility and impeding progress tracking. The National Adaptation Plan Framework, while thoughtfully designed, has been hampered by limited stakeholder engagement and resource constraints, particularly in high-risk sectors. A telling example is the recent Maiduguri floods, exacerbated by the Alau Dam's partial disrepair—a failure that highlights the consequences of unimplemented adaptation measures.

Nigeria has no shortage of policies and action plans addressing climate change, yet their wide-scale and impactful implementation of the plans remains far from what is outlined on paper.

The issue of household energy consumption remains a cornerstone of Nigeria’s ongoing climate challenge despite the huge opportunity we have to transition into a renewable energy system. The Nigeria Residential Energy Demand-Side Survey (NREDSS) released in October 2024 by NBS gives us more perspective on this challenge. Recent findings from the household energy demand survey reveal stark realities about the country’s progress—or lack thereof—toward sustainable energy solutions.

Fuelwood, a major contributor to deforestation and greenhouse gas emissions, remains the most prevalent energy source. The survey indicated that 41% of households surveyed purchase fuelwood, while 39% collect it directly, often cutting branches, stems, and even whole trees. These unsustainable practices contribute not only to environmental degradation but also to the worsening of climate vulnerability for rural communities. Charcoal use follows similar patterns, with 22% of households relying on it for cooking and other domestic needs.

Transitioning to cleaner alternatives, such as Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG), offers a pathway to reduced emissions, yet affordability and access remain formidable barriers. Despite the efforts to promote LPG use, only 19.4% of households surveyed reported adopting it, with an average monthly expenditure of ₦10,239.7—a prohibitive cost for many Nigerians. This slow adoption rate underscores the need for stronger financial incentives, infrastructure expansion, and public awareness campaigns.

Grid electricity, while reaching a majority of surveyed households, is fraught with inefficiencies. 85.2% of grid-connected households rely on estimated billing systems, which are often inaccurate and lead to disputes. Another area of inefficiency is the constant grid failure that has occurred in the past few months that have proven to be an unreliable source of power for most Nigerians. Efforts under the Nigeria Energy Transition Plan aim to improve renewable energy adoption through solar mini-grids and off-grid electrification initiatives. However, these efforts fall short of addressing the pervasive reliance on unsustainable fuels. The country has yet to achieve even the foundational goal of delivering a reliable national grid power supply—an essential baseline for sustainable energy access. Additionally, the provision of affordable LPG, which could enable households to transition to cleaner energy sources, remains inadequate. This is a clear indication that the gap between policy aspirations and on-the-ground realities is wide.

Nigeria’s position as the 4th largest emitter in Africa reflects the country’s growing contribution to global greenhouse gas emissions. CO₂ emitted in 2023 stands at approximately 128 million metric tons, fueled by economic expansion, urbanization, and reliance on fossil fuels.

The energy sector is Nigeria’s largest source of emissions, driven by a fossil fuel-dominated energy mix. Oil contributes the highest share, with 65.27 million metric tons (MtCO₂) annually, followed by gas at 35.38 MtCO₂. Gas flaring alone accounts for 10.88 MtCO₂, reflecting ongoing challenges despite mitigation efforts. Emissions from coal and cement add 5.77 MtCO₂ and 11.24 MtCO₂, respectively, further emphasizing the sector's role in Nigeria’s carbon footprint.

Urbanization and industrial activities also drive emissions growth. Transportation systems remain heavily reliant on petroleum-based fuels, while inefficiencies in the national grid force the widespread use of diesel generators. Although 58% of households in the survey are connected to the grid, the reliance on estimated billing systems by 85.2% of these households results in inefficiencies that exacerbate energy challenges.

Deforestation adds another layer of complexity to Nigeria’s emissions profile. With an annual loss of approximately 3.7% of its forest every year, the highest rate in the world. This is primarily due to agricultural expansion and demand for fuelwood, deforestation undermines carbon sequestration efforts.

Nigeria has committed to ambitious climate targets under its updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)—a 20% emissions reduction by 2030 unconditionally, rising to 47% with international support—implementation remains a challenge but the combination of gas flaring, deforestation, and fossil fuel dependence positions Nigeria as both a critical player in Africa’s climate landscape and a country facing substantial obstacles in mitigating its environmental impact.

Securing adequate funding for climate action remains one of Nigeria’s most pressing challenges. Despite progress in mobilizing resources, a recent report showed that Nigeria’s climate finance flows totalled $2.5 billion in 2021/22, reflecting a 32% increase from $1.9 billion in 2019/20, which is the 3rd highest in Africa. Yet, this represents just 8% of the $29.7 billion required annually to meet its climate goals by 2030. The scale of this gap highlights a significant shortfall that risks undermining the country’s ambitions under its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).

Where does this funding come from? Public sources dominate, accounting for 70% of total flows in 2021/22, with multilateral development finance institutions contributing $1.2 billion. Private-sector involvement, though growing, remains limited, representing 30% of total flows. Most private investments have been directed toward renewable energy projects, particularly small-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) systems.

How are these funds being allocated? Mitigation activities have received the largest share of climate finance, with $1.2 billion going toward renewable energy projects, energy efficiency initiatives, and emissions reduction strategies. By contrast, adaptation measures—which are critical for a country highly vulnerable to climate impacts—received just $0.74 billion, less than a third of total flows. Adaptation efforts have largely focused on agriculture, forestry, and water management, but funding levels remain insufficient to address the increasing frequency of extreme weather events and their associated costs.

What about Nigeria’s debt burden? Much of the international public finance received comes in the form of loans, which exacerbates Nigeria’s already strained fiscal position. In 2022, over 80% of government revenue was allocated to debt servicing, leaving limited fiscal space for normal government spending not to mention financing climate action. This dependency on debt-financed climate initiatives underscores a need for concessional funding and innovative financing mechanisms.

Some sectors are being overlooked entirely. Buildings, waste management, and transport collectively accounted for less than 10% of total climate finance flows, despite their significant potential for emissions reduction and climate adaptation. For example, Nigeria’s transport sector remains heavily reliant on petroleum-based fuels, contributing significantly to national emissions while receiving minimal investment in green transport alternatives.

Initiatives to close these gaps are emerging but remain small-scale. Since 2017, Nigeria has raised $63 million through green bonds, with proceeds directed toward renewable energy and afforestation projects. The establishment of a National Climate Change Fund, intended to attract private-sector investments and de-risk climate projects, is still in its planning stages. Meanwhile, fossil fuel subsidies, which totalled $9.3 billion in 2022, continue to overshadow climate finance flows, highlighting the difficult balance between economic priorities and climate commitments.

As it stands, Nigeria’s ability to finance its climate goals is constrained by systemic challenges, including limited private-sector engagement, a reliance on debt financing, and sectoral imbalances in funding allocation. The country’s current position reflects significant progress in mobilizing resources but also stark shortfalls that must be addressed to match the urgency of its climate challenges.

Nigeria’s efforts to combat climate change reveal a mix of ambition and systemic challenges. While policies such as the Climate Change Act, the Energy Transition Plan, and updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) reflect a commitment to addressing climate risks, implementation gaps and financial constraints persist. The reliance on fossil fuels, inadequate adaptation measures, and insufficient private-sector participation hinder progress. Moreover, the annual $29.7 billion financing requirement remains far from being met, with significant imbalances in funding allocation across sectors.

To achieve meaningful progress, Nigeria must bridge the gap between policy aspirations and tangible outcomes. Strengthening institutional frameworks, expanding renewable energy access, addressing deforestation and harnessing a strong political will to implement is critical. Equally, balancing economic priorities with climate goals through innovative financing mechanisms and international support will be essential. Without decisive action, Nigeria risks remaining highly vulnerable to climate impacts, threatening its development trajectory and the well-being of its citizens.